On November 30, 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, a chatbot, making the latest generation of AI technology widely available. In the few months that followed, we saw Italy ChatGTP ban Because of privacy concerns, tech luminaries are calling for Pause in the development of artificial intelligence systemsAnd even leading researchers say we should be prepared for it launch air strikes on data centers linked to rogue artificial intelligence.
The rapid deployment of AI and its potential impacts on society and human economies is now in the spotlight.
What will AI mean for productivity and economic growth? Will it usher in an era of automated welfare for all, or will it simply intensify existing inequalities? What does this mean for the role of humans?
Economists have been studying these questions for many years. My colleague Yixiao Zhou and I clear their results It’s 2021, and we find that we’re still a long way from definitive answers.
The economic big picture of artificial intelligence
Over the past half century or so, workers all over the world have been getting… a smallest part of their country’s total income.
At the same time, growth in productivity—the amount of output that can be produced with a given amount of inputs such as labor and materials—has Slower. This period also witnessed tremendous developments in the creation and implementation of information and automation technologies.
Better technology should lead to higher productivity. The apparent failure of the computer revolution to deliver on these gains is a puzzle economists call Solow’s Paradox.
Will artificial intelligence rescue global productivity from its long slump? And if so, who will reap the gains? Many people are curious about these questions.
While consulting firms often paint AI as A comprehensive economic medicine, policy makers are more concerned about potential job losses. Perhaps not surprisingly, economists have taken a more cautious view.
economic radicalism changH , rapid pace
Perhaps the single biggest source of caution is the huge uncertainty about the future course of AI technology.
Compared to previous technological leaps – such as the railways, automated transportation and, more recently, the gradual integration of computers into all aspects of our lives – AI can spread faster. And it can do so with a much lower capital investment.
This is because the application of artificial intelligence is very much a software revolution. Much of the infrastructure it requires, such as computing hardware, networking, and cloud services, is already in place. There’s no need for the slow process of building an actual railroad or broadband network – you can use ChatGPT and the similar software suite that’s now rapidly spreading from your phone.
It is also relatively cheap to use AI, which greatly reduces the barriers to entry. This is related to another major uncertainty about AI: the scope and scope of the effects.
Artificial intelligence seems likely to radically change the way we do things in many areas, from education and privacy to the structure of global trade. AI may not only change the separate elements of the economy, but its broader structure.
Proper modeling of such complex and radical change would be challenging in the extreme, and no one has done so yet. But without such modeling, economists cannot provide clear data about the likely effects on the economy in general.
More inequality, weaker institutions
Although economists have different opinions about the impact of AI, there is general agreement among economic studies that AI will increasing inequality.
One possible example of this could be a further shift of advantage from labor to capital, weakening labor enterprises along the way. At the same time, it may also reduce tax bases, which weakens the government’s ability to redistribute.
Most of the empirical studies found that artificial intelligence technology It will not reduce the total employment. However, it is likely to reduce the relative amount of income that goes to low-skilled labor, which will increase inequality in society.
Moreover, productivity growth induced by AI would lead to a redistribution of labor and restructuring of trade, which would lead to an increase in inequality within and between countries.
As a result, controlling the rate of adoption of AI technology is likely to slow the pace of social and economic restructuring. This will provide a longer window for adjustment between the relative losers and the beneficiaries.
In the face of the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence, there is potential for governments to mitigate income inequality and its negative effects through policies aimed at reducing inequality of opportunity.
What remains to humThe answer is after Amnesty International takes over?
Renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs he once said“,”What humans can do in the age of AI is just to be human, because that is what neither robots nor AI can do.”
But what exactly does that mean? At least in economic terms?
In traditional economic modeling, human beings are often synonymous with “work”, and also being an improvement agent at the same time. If machines can not only perform work but also make decisions and even generate ideas, what is left for humans?
The rise of AI challenges economists to develop more complex representations of humans and the “economic agents” that populate their models.
As did the American economists David Parks and Michael Wellman male, a world of artificial intelligence agents may actually act more like an economic theory than a human world. Compared to humans, AI systems “are better respecting idealistic assumptions of rationality than people do, reacting through new rules and motivational systems very different from those designed for people.”
Most importantly, having a better understanding of what is “human” in the economy should also help us think about what new characteristics AI will bring to the economy.
Will artificial intelligence bring us fundamentally new production technologies, or will it bring us existing production technologies? Is AI just a substitute for human labor or capital, or is it an independent economic factor in the economic system?
Answering these questions is vital for economists – and for understanding how the world will change in the coming years.
Want to learn more about artificial intelligence, chatbots, and the future of machine learning? Check out our full coverage of artificial intelligenceor browse our guides to The best free AI art generators And Everything we know about OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Yinjing Luis a research associate at the Center for Applied Macroeconomics at the Crawford School of Public Policy and coordinator of the economist CSIRO
This article has been republished from Conversation Under Creative Commons Licence. Read the The original article.
(tags for translation) Yingying Lu